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Today's News and Views

Greg Sargent

Bio

07.08.2006

Larry King Lets Laura Bush Lie To Him

By now you may have heard that during her interview with Larry King, First Lady Laura Bush lamented to her host that newspapers refuse to put good poll numbers for her husband -- that would be the President -- on their front pages. She said, "when they're good polls...you don't see them on the front page."

This is not the first time Mrs. Bush has tried to argue this. She's said it a number of times before, including on Fox News in May.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but this is simply a lie.

Throughout the Bush Presidency the major papers have been more than happy to put good polls for Bush on their front pages. Just for the fun of it, let's scan a list of articles from the New York Times and the Washington Post trumpeting good Bush poll numbers. Every single one of these was featured on the front page:

1) January 29, 2002, the Post: Bush and GOP Enjoy Record Popularity; Poll Finds Broad Support Despite Doubts on Economy

2) March 11, 2002, the Post: Poll: Strong Backing for Bush, War; Few Americans See Easy End to Conflict

3) July 17, 2002, the Post: Poll Shows Bush's Ratings Weathering Business Scandals

4) Dec. 17, 2003, the Times: Bush's Approval Ratings Climb In Days After Hussein's Capture

5) Dec. 23, 2003, the Post: Bush Gets Year-End Boost in Approval; Poll Shows Dean Surging Among Democratic Rivals

6) March 22, 2003, the Times: Support for Bush Surges at Home, but Split Remains

7) April 20, 2004, the Post: Poll Shows New Gains For Bush; Lead Over Kerry Widens On Issues of Security

8) Sept. 10, 2004, the Post: Bush Support Strong After Convention; Kerry Favorability Rating Plunges in New Survey

9) Sept. 28, 2004, the Post: Poll Shows Bush With Solid Lead; Despite Worries, Voters Cite Lack of Clarity From Kerry

More recently, on June 14th of this year, the Washington Post ran an article -- yes, on page one -- partly about Bush's uptick in polls with this headline: "Spate of Good News Gives White House a Chance to Regroup."

And on June 27th, the Post had this headline on its front page: "Poll Shows Growth In Support For Bush."

You get the idea. If you ever wonder why some conservatives have success persuading people that the media's out to get Bush, consider that Mrs. Bush has repeated this false line (that newspapers won't put good Bush poll numbers on their front pages) in multiple settings, and no on-air host or commentator has to my knowledge ever corrected her falsehood. Needless to say, Larry King didn't, either. Maybe he doesn't mind being lied to, or something.

Adapted from a post at The Horse's Mouth.

Sen. Bayh seeks edge in Democratic field

By MIKE GLOVER, Associated Press Writer

Sat Jul 8, 4:15 AM ET

In a quiet, methodical style reflecting his Midwestern roots, Sen. Evan Bayh (news, bio, voting record) is laying the foundation for a presidential campaign and prompting some Democrats to talk about a candidate with a realistic shot.

"The chatter that you hear is that he's a good guy and nice and he has that honest, Midwestern feel to him, kind of like Harry Truman," said veteran Democratic strategist Dane Strother. "That's all appealing."

In his fifth trip to Iowa in the last year, the centrist Indiana Democrat opened a three-day swing Thursday with a fundraiser in downtown Des Moines for legislative candidates. He mingled easily with about 50 party activists for more than an hour and made a point of chatting with everyone in the room.

"He's a Midwesterner and that will help him in Iowa," said state Senate Democratic leader Michael Gronstal. "It's up to him to sell himself, and so far he's been fairly impressive."

As he makes his way around the state, which launches the primary process with caucuses, Bayh sets aside ample time for private meetings with top Democrats, introductory sessions in which he often trades stories about campaigning for his father, former Sen. Birch Bayh.

The elder Bayh served from 1963-81 and spent time in Iowa in his unsuccessful bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1976. The son finds that the campaign war stories are an effective way of building ties, particularly with older Democrats who remember his dad.

While New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton looms as the front-runner for 2008, other Democrats are fighting to distinguish themselves from the pack. Bayh has the distinction of having won statewide election five times in one of the most Republican states in the nation, serving as secretary of state, governor and senator.

"I don't think you can get elected five times in a state that hasn't gone Democratic since 1964 without learning how to campaign," said Anita Dunn, a Democratic media consultant who has signed on with Bayh.

Bayh has assembled a solid team of advisers operating under the auspices of his political action committee, the All America PAC. He's tapped a former Democratic National Committee fundraiser, a onetime pollster for Howard Dean's presidential campaign and a chief of staff to the late Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan.

Dunn was a top adviser to former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley during his 2000 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Bayh has $9.8 million in his campaign account, according to March filings. His All America PAC had $967,453 cash on hand.

Bayh, 50, casts himself as a centrist who can win over independents and moderate Republicans, and his political resume is his base appeal.

"I have a proven track record of doing something this president said he would do and never did, and that's being more of a uniter than a divider, reaching out to independents, reasonable Republicans as well as all of our Democrats," Bayh said.

There's plenty of competition for the backing of moderate Democrats. Bayh is seeking to separate himself from rivals like former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner by focusing on his national security resume, which includes membership on the Senate Armed Services and Intelligence committees.

"One thing we need to do is prove to this country that we can be tough and smart," said Bayh. "We need to take Karl Rove and this administration on this issue. We know they are going to attack us on this."

"Warner does have a paucity of foreign policy experience," said Democratic consultant Steve Murphy, who said the jury is still out on the competition. "We have elected a one-term governor in the recent past. It all depends on Warner's performance in the campaign."

Warner spokeswoman Ellen Qualls dismissed the notion of a competition.

"If Governor Warner decides to throw his hat in the ring, I don't think he's going to be fighting for a label. He's going to be asking folks to look at his record," said Qualls.

Bayh's close attention to retail politics has earned him high marks as Iowa Democrats head into a competitive election with an open governor's race, toss-up House races and a legislature that's virtually tied. Bayh planned to attend eight events raising money for local candidates.

"He is making inroads here," said former Iowa Democratic Chairman Gordon Fischer. "He is doing what it takes to be successful in the Iowa caucuses, and that is a lot of retail politics."

Tom Courtney, a state senator from Burlington, Iowa, was getting some help from Bayh.

"When I'm around town, I'm starting to hear Bayh's name mentioned," Courtney said. "Democrats are looking for somebody who is new and fresh."

Though Bayh is making an impression in some early states, he remains little known around the country.

"Honestly, there's only one person on anybody's radar screen and that's Senator Clinton," said Democratic strategist Chris Lehane, who is not working for any candidate. "None of these other folks have begun to register in a meaningful way."

___

On the Net:

Sen. Evan Bayh: http://bayh.senate.gov/

washingtonpost.com's Politics Blog

Posted at 02:28 PM ET, 07/10/2006

Ohio Senate Race Looking Better For Dems?

For much of the last year, Democrats have been touting Ohio as a key state in their hopes of winning back majorities in the House and Senate. The Buckeye State is seen as a strong playing field for Democrats in part because of ethics problems surrounding the GOP governor, Robert Taft. With Taft's problems hurting his party overall, Democrats are heavily targeting several prominent GOP incumbents, including Sen. Mike DeWine and Reps. Steve Chabot, Deborah Pryce and Bob Ney.

The Democratic effort to oust DeWine had been plagued for most of this year by the bitter fallout stemming from Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett's short-lived primary challenge to nominee Sherrod Brown. When he pulled out of the race early this year, Hackett accused Democratic Party leaders in Washington of sabotaging his campaign. So embittered was Hackett that he refused pleas from Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) to run for the 2nd District House seat against Rep. Jean Schmidt, whom Hackett had nearly beaten in an August 2005 special election.

Time appears to have healed Hackett's wounds, as evidenced by the joint appearance scheduled for 3 p.m. today in Cincinnati where Hackett will formally endorse Brown. The move is the result of a long meeting between the two principals in the last few days. Although it has taken Hackett six months to get over his perceived snubbing by Democratic bigwigs, his willingness to do so should give Brown a nice bump.

Sen. Charles Schumer (N.Y.), head of the Senate Democrats' campaign arm, offered kinds words for Hackett today, praising his "statesman-like action," adding: "This is the kind of unity that the DSCC has encouraged in Democratic campaigns and that will help pave the way for victory in 2006."

Of course, the endorsement also allows Republicans to dredge up a number of unsavory quotes that Hackett made when he left the race. Our personal favorite among those provided to The Fix today by the National Republican Senatorial Committee: "You're not gonna throw out a sitting senator in a Republican state with a very liberal Democratic longstanding U.S. Congressman," Hackett told Mother Jones magazine. "How come this doesn't happen in the Republican Party? ... It's because they sit down guys like Sherrod and put him in a corner and make him wear the dunce cap."

Although no recent polling has been released in the race, several independent surveys from earlier this spring showed DeWine with a double-digit lead. The Ohio Poll, which was in the field in May, showed DeWine with a 52 percent to 42 percent lead. A Mason-Dixon poll for the Cleveland Plain Dealer in April put DeWine's lead at 11 points -- 47 percent to 36 percent. The Brown campaign released a survey almost simultaneously that had Brown ahead 45 percent to 44 percent. (The Ohio race is currently ranked as the fifth most likely to change parties on The Fix's Senate race rankings; see also washingtonpost.com's key race write-up.)

In the 18th...

Speaking of polling, a new survey sponsored by attorney Zack Space's (D) campaign shows the challenger with a double-digit lead over Rep. Ney (R) in the 18th District.

The survey, which was conducted by pollster Alan Secrest, showed Space with a 46 percent to 35 percent edge over Ney. Nineteen percent of the sample was undecided. Secrest links Ney's poor ballot showing to his "dismal" personal favorability and job approval ratings. In the Secrest poll, 33 percent said they had a favorable view of Ney while 49 percent held a negative view; just 29 percent felt positively about the job Ney is doing while 61 percent had the opposite view. The poll was in the field June 28-29, testing 503 likely voters and carrying a 4.4 percent margin of error.

Note that the poll was in the field at the same time that news -- first reported in Roll Call newspaper [subscription only] -- that three top aides to Ney, including his chief of staff and communications director, were leaving the office while another staffer had been subpoenaed by the federal grand jury to testify in connection with the probe into the congressman's alleged illegal dealings of disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Those developments have further stoked speculation that Ney will be the first member of Congress indicted in the Abramoff investigation. Although Ney has pledged to seek reelection even if he is indicted, he would likely come under heavy pressure from national Republicans to step aside should that come to pass.

On its face, Ney's 18th District should be an easy hold for Republican (President Bush won it with 57 percent in 2004), but the incumbent's problems have made this one of Democrats top pickup chances this November.

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Posted at 06:02 AM ET, 07/10/2006

Insider Interview: John McCain

As part of our continuing series of interviews with politicians weighing bids for president in 2008, the Post's Dan Balz and I sat down with Arizona Sen. John McCain (R) late last month.

Arizona Sen. John McCain

Much has been written on The Fix and elsewhere about McCain's public support for President Bush on issues like the war in Iraq and immigration, as well as his more private courtship of key players from the president's 2000 and 2004 races.

During the 30-minute interview McCain said that any sort of timetable-setting for troop withdrawals from Iraq would be a mistake and asserted that progress is being made. On immigration McCain expressed optimism that a compromise bill could emerge before the November election, warning that his party faces considerable peril if no legislation is approved.

He also reiterated his call for partisan comity on Capitol Hill, decried the negativity of modern campaigns, and said he wouldn't make a decision on his own political future until next year.

For the next week, the only way you can hear what McCain had to say is to click on the links below to download the complete interview, available in audio and video formats. You may also subscribe to The Fix Podcast to get the McCain interview along with a host of others The Fix has done over the past few months. A full analysis of the McCain interview, along with the transcript, will be posted next Monday.

Download audio of The Fix's interview with Sen. John McCain.

Subscribe to the Audio Podcast: XML | iTunes | My Yahoo

Download video of The Fix's interview with Sen. John McCain.

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Posted at 07:30 AM ET, 07/ 7/2006

The Friday Line: Dems Eye Possible Senate Pickups

By now any loyal Fix reader knows the state of play in the fight for control of the Senate. Democrats need six seats to regain the majority and have five possible pickup opportunities -- Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Missouri, Montana and Ohio. They also have three races on the cusp of competitiveness -- Virginia, Tennessee and Arizona.

Interactive Campaign Map: More Election Data and Analysis.

Republican prospects are actually looking up in both Maryland and Washington State while the open seat in Minnesota is a tough but winnable race.

Enough with the prelude, let's get to the Line.

10. Washington -- Maria Cantwell (D): This race should have been on the Line months ago. Cantwell beat then Sen. Slade Gorton (R) in 2000 by just more than 2,000 votes and Republicans have a well-financed and savvy candidate in former Safeco Insurance executive Mike McGavick. Cantwell has drawn the ire of the liberal left for her continued support for the war in Iraq, although her recent vote in favor of the Levin-Reed amendment may help ease those tensions somewhat. Two anti-war Democrats are weighing primary bids against Cantwell and must decide by the filing deadline toward the end the month. The question is not whether disaffected Democrats defect to McGavick but whether they stay home on Election Day. No credible poll we've seen of late has Cantwell over 50 percent or with a lead of more than five to seven points. The pro-Democratic national political environment should help the incumbent but this could end up being a very close contest. (Previous ranking: N/A)

9. New Jersey Bob Menendez (D): Can state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) turn this race into a referendum on corruption with Menendez as the poster boy for old style, machine politics? Maybe, but he's not had much success with that tack thus far. An attempt by Kean's operation to raise questions regarding Menendez's role in a 1981 corruption case largely backfired and his campaign seemed to mishandle their plans to put together a film documenting Menendez's alleged corruption. Independent polling continues to show this race as a nip and tuck affair with Menendez typically carrying a lead within the margin of error. Kean has potential as a candidate -- especially when you consider his last name is political gold -- but has not shown much of it yet. (Previous ranking: 7)

8. Maryland -- OPEN, Paul Sarbanes (D): Lt. Gov. Michael Steele's campaign received some good news last week. A poll conducted by the Post showed former Democratic Rep. Kweisi Mfume leading the Democratic primary field and Mfume and Steele in a dead heat in the general election among likely voters. Rep. Ben Cardin remains the favorite in the Democratic primary thanks to support from the party establishment and a deep campaign warchest. Wealthy businessman Josh Rales remains the x-factor in the primary race -- he has already given himself $1.5 million to finance television ads, and appears ready to give more. We recently sat down with Rales and came away impressed. The more turmoil in the Democratic primary the better for Steele who still needs to draw a straight flush to win in November. (Previous ranking: 9)

7. Tennessee -- OPEN, Bill Frist (R): Former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker remains the favorite in the three-way Republican primary against former Reps. Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant -- bad news for Rep. Harold Ford Jr.'s (D) chances in the fall. Corker will need to prove over the next month that he can withstand attacks on his record on taxes and abortion, both of which Hilleary and Bryant view as silver bullet. It's impossible to criticize the campaign Ford has run to date -- he has done a stellar job of painting himself as an agent for change while also being careful not to give Republicans any ammunition to label him a national Democrat. (Previous ranking: 7)

6. Minnesota -- OPEN, Mark Dayton (D): What to say? Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) and Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) occasionally skirmish (witness the inevitable camera incident that went down recently) but generally are content to issue policy proposals and hoard cash for the fall. This should be an intriguing race but it isn't at the moment. (Previous ranking: 6)

5. Ohio -- Mike DeWine (R): This race is less a contest between DeWine and Rep. Sherrod Brown as it is a slugfest between their surrogates: President George W. Bush on one side and Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi on the other. Brown and national Democrats have already begun to hang Bush (and his faltering poll numbers) around DeWine's neck; the National Republican Senatorial Committee has nicknamed the Congressman "Far Out Brown" for his allegedly out of touch views. Still a very good Democratic pickup chance but we are less gung ho about it than we were earlier this cycle. (Previous ranking: 4)

4. Missouri -- Jim Talent (R): It's a tribute to Democrats' chances of picking up seats this fall that Missouri is still ranked fourth on the Line. A Research 2000 poll late last month that showed state Auditor Claire McCaskill with a 49 percent to 43 percent edge over Talent demonstrated just how ripe a pickup opportunity this seat is for Democrats. McCaskill is spending most of her time in the Show Me State's vast rural expanses in hopes of improving on her less than stellar showing there when she ran for governor in 2004. She also looks likely to get a turnout boost from ballot initiatives advocating stem cell research and a minimum wage increase -- both of which should pass overwhelmingly. (Previous ranking: 4)

3. Rhode Island -- Lincoln Chafee (R): For months we've been mulling moving this race down on the list and now seems like the right time. Just one day after filing to run for re-election as a Republican, Chafee got a nice boost when he won the endorsement of the Republican state convention. Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey and his allies dismissed the convention results as meaningless but it seems to us that if there was widespread dissension toward Chafee it would have come to light here. Chafee's case that he is the only Republican who can beat former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D) this fall was bolstered by a recent poll that showed him trailing the Democrat by a single point while Laffey was behind by 30. (Previous ranking: 2)

2. Montana -- Conrad Burns (R): Democrats are higher on state Sen. Jon Tester than any other candidate in the country. His farming background, flattop hairdo and unique "hang loose" trademark (the result of his losing his three middle fingers on his left hand to a meat grinder as a child) seem to be the exact right profile for a Democrat to win in this state. Plus, we have continue to believe that Burns' late response to allegations of wrongdoing in connection with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff have damaged him deeply in the minds of voters. (Previous ranking: 3)

1. Pennsylvania -- Rick Santorum (R): Another month passes and public polling still consistently shows state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D) with a double-digit lead over Santorum. Santorum's first television ad of the race focused on his tough stance on immigration -- a paean to his conservative base. If Santorum is shoring up his base four months before the election he may be in even more dire straits that we initially thought. (Previous ranking: 1)

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Posted at 05:08 PM ET, 07/ 6/2006

The Fix Talks Back

I spent an hour this morning fielding questions during a live online chat. As always, there were alot more questions than I could get to so I kept a few of the best and answered them below. Don't forget to check The Fix tomorrow morning for the latest Friday Senate Line.

Alexandria, Va.: But Chris, you didn't answer the question -- would Barack Obama as VP on a losing 2008 ticket hurt his future changes (my view, hey, it's free advertising, unless he's involved in a major screwup). Would be interested in your thoughts.

The Fix:: It's hard to imagine a scenario under which Obama would hurt his chances at the presidency by agreeing to be on the national ticket. Should that ticket lose, Obama would run the risk of being painted as yesterday's news by some insiders but he could easily explain that away by pointing out that he didn't lead the ticket. The one caveat, which you rightly note, is if he was to commit a major gaffe on the campaign trail that took some of the shine off of him in the eyes of voters and insiders. Given his political skills, a mistake like that seems highly unlikely.

Denver, Colo.: One appeal that Mark Warner has is the appeal of "competency". Having sucessfully negotaiated the challenges in Virginia he makes an appealing candidate nationally at a time when so much is in disarray. What do you think?

The Fix: The majority of Warner's stump speech, not surprisingly, is devoted to the successes he has created in his life -- from cell phones in the private sector to his four years as governor of the Commonwealth. I think the competence argument only goes so far, however, especially on foreign affairs. Warner's biggest problem is that he has little experience on foreign policy and must convince Democratic primary voters to take a chance on someone who has no track record. His demonstrated competence in the business world and in Virginia politics should help him make the case but it will be a struggle.

Boston, Mass.: How big a deal is it that both the Democratic campaign committees for the House and Senate are outraising their Republican counterparts? Did the Busby-Bilbray race erase the NRCC's cash advantage (by forcing the GOP to spend $5 mil to defend a "safe" seat)?

The Fix: It's an important -- and shocking -- development that the Post's Jim VandeHei documented well in a recent article. After the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act went into effect after the 2002 election, Democrats to a person predicted it would cripple their ability to remain within financial shouting distance of Republicans. That has not been the case. In 2004, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee outraised its Republican counterpart and through May 2006 both the DSCC and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had more cash to spend than the Republican committees. Republicans got a huge boost from the President's Dinner and, at least on the House side, should jump into the lead again when June reports come out later this month. The underlying trend is intriguing, however, as Internet fundraising has created a new reservoir of cash for Democrats that Republicans have been unable to match to date. The real test of fundraising parity will be in the 2008 presidential campaign when both sides go full tilt to raise hundreds of millions of dollars.

Louisville, Ky.: Do you any word on Ky-3? The Dem challenger John Yarmuth released a poll putting himself one point above incumbent Ann Northup. Do you have any other numbers? Louisville is by far the most blue area in the state. Any chance for a Dem pickup here?

The Fix: Northup is perenially targeted by national Democrats who see the tilt of her Louisville area district, which went for Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry by a 51 percent to 49 percent margin in 2004. But Northup has shown incredible resiliency, having won tough re-election fights since 1996. I saw that poll, and I can believe the numbers, but remember it is still early in the campaign. Northup will spend millions touting her accomplishments and attacking Yarmouth and it's not immediately clear he will have the resources to respond. That said, in a year with Democrats enjoying a strong wind at their back, this could be a race to watch.

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Posted at 01:08 PM ET, 07/ 6/2006

Landing Big Campaign Finance Fish

Casinos regularly ply deep-pocketed gamblers with free drinks, hotel rooms and a variety of other goodies. Score a few of these "whales" -- as these big-time betters are known -- and a casino's reputation and financial well-being receives a major boost.

Presidential politics is no different. Its whales are the wealthy men and women who form the foundation of a candidate's fundraising infrastructure.

For decades, politicians running or considering a run for national office have placed a priority on the recruitment of deep-pocketed donors, the 2000 and 2004 campaigns of President George W. Bush turned this process into an art form. Bush asked affluent individuals not simply to donate to the campaign but also to round up thousands of dollars in contributions from friends and colleagues. A tiered system was created to reward the most effective of this lot; "Pioneers" raised $100,000, "Rangers" $200,000, and "Super Rangers" $300,000.

The cataloguing of these politically active and financially influential givers provided a blueprint for any Republican candidate mulling the wide-open 2008 contest. With the price tag for the early primary and caucus season estimated at $50-$100 million, securing the support of these boffo bundlers of cash is one of the early hurdles that any serious GOPers must clear.

It's not surprising then that the courtship of these cash cows is well underway among the contenders for the Republican nomination. Today's post marks the first attempt in a series to provide a glimpse at which of these key donors have chosen a 2008 candidate. When we learn of new signees, we'll update the list.

It's important to note that the majority of Pioneers and Rangers have yet to choose sides and may not do so until well into 2008 as they weigh who makes the best investment among the candidates.

What is clear in the early going is that Arizona Sen. John McCain and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are spending the most time in the courtship of these big donors and, as a result, have enjoyed the most success in securing commitments. We hear that Virginia Sen. George Allen and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani are huddling regularly with the whales but have yet to sign any of them up. Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist has locked up several key fundraisers from the Volunteer State.

Below is a list of the major fundraisers (some were neither Rangers nor Pioneers) who have already chosen a candidate. As I mentioned above this is an evolving list and is not meant to be comprehensive. If you know of names that should be added, feel free to note that in the comments section or send me an email.

John McCain
Wayne Berman, lobbyist (D.C.) RANGER
Fred Malek, Thayer Capital Partners (D.C.)
Carter Pate, PricewaterhouseCoopers (D.C./Texas) RANGER
Bob Mosbacher, Mosbacher Energy Co. (Texas)
Tom Loeffler, lobbyist (Texas) RANGER

Mitt Romney
Peter Karmanos, Compuware Corp. (Mich.)
David Fischer, Suburban Collection (Mich.) PIONEER
John Rakolta, Walbridge Aldinger (Mich.) RANGER
Dave Phillips, Phillips Industries (N.C.) RANGER
Tom Tellefsen, Tellefsen Investments (Calif.) PIONEER
Anne Dunsmore, Capital Campaigns (Calif.) RANGER
Hadi Makarechian, Capital Pacific Holdings (Calif.)
Herb Collins, Boston Capital Partners (Mass.) PIONEER
Jim Sims (MA) GEN3Partners (Mass.)
Joe O'Donnell (MA), Boston Culinary Group (Mass.) RANGER
Tom Foley, NTC Corp. (Conn.) PIONEER
Eric Tanenblatt, McKenna Long Aldridge (Ga.) RANGER

Bill Frist
Zachariah Zachariah, cardiologist (Fla.) RANGER
Ken Eldred, Living Stones Foundation (Calif.)
Michael Lebovitz, CBL & Associates Partners (Tenn.) RANGER
Jim Haslam, Pilot Oil Co. (Tenn.) RANGER
Chip Saltsman, former Tennnessee state party chairman (Tenn.) RANGER
Ted Welch, Ted Welch Investments (Tenn.) RANGER
Jeff McWaters, Amerigroup Corp. (Va.) PIONEER

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Posted at 04:05 PM ET, 07/ 5/2006

Lieberman: Iraq and a Hard Place

Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman's decision to gather signatures to run as an Independent in the event he loses the Aug. 8 Democratic primary shocked many in the political world. It shouldn't.

Lieberman had been sending signals for weeks (if not months) that he was moving in that direction, repeatedly refusing to rule out the possibility of an Independent candidacy even as his aides down played the idea.

And, public polling had shown the Democratic primary race between Lieberman and businessman Ned Lamont narrowing while the incumbent held a wide lead over Lamont and likely Republican nominee Alan Schlesinger in a general election matchup.

So, now that Lieberman has opened the political pandora's box of an Independent candidacy, what comes next?

The first element to assess is the reaction Lieberman's decision has drawn from his colleagues, a response best described as tepid.

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) said he had spoken with Lieberman and accepted his decision. Asked today whether the Leader would support Lieberman if he loses the Democratic primary to Lamont, Reid spokesman Jim Manley punted. "Joe Lieberman is going to win the primary and we are not going to speculate about it," Manley said.

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) appeared on "Meet The Press" on Sunday and echoed that sentiment. "I'm not going to speculate on what happens after the primary, because we believe Joe Lieberman is going to win, and it -- I'm not going to undermine my candidate by speculating about what might happen afterwards," Schumer said.

A Democratic source who requested anonymity in order to speak with candor said, however, that the DSCC will likely support whichever Democrat wins the primary.

Lieberman received a similar rebuke from New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is widely seen as the frontrunner for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. After noting that she and Lieberman have been friends for more than three decades, Clinton said in a statement: "I want to be clear that I will support the nominee chosen by Connecticut Democrats in their primary. I believe in the Democratic party; and I believe we must honor the decisions made by Democratic primary voters."

That decision is good politics for Clinton who has struggled to gain support among the liberal blogosphere due to her positioning on the war in Iraq. The "netroots" are heavily involved in Lamont's campaign (Markos Moulitsas Zuniga aka Kos appeared in an ad for the challenger) and Clinton was already receiving some kudos among posters on several of the larger and more influential liberal blogs for her move.

Should Lieberman lose the primary, expect a number of other Senators -- especially the more liberal elements of the caucus -- to follow Clinton's lead. If Clinton, the DSCC and other powerful interests within the national party come out in favor of Lamont, it will be difficult for Lieberman to continue on as an independent in the general election regardless of the polling. One interesting possibility is that if Lieberman runs and wins as an independent without the support of national Democrats whether that impels him to consider caucusing with Republicans in the 110th Congress.

The history of Independent Senate bids is nasty, brutish and short.

Vermont Sen. Jim Jeffords is the only Independent currently serving in the Senate but when he ran for a third term in 2000 it was as a Republican. Jeffords switched his affiliation to Independent in 2001 and announced he would not seek a fourth term last year.

New Hampshire Sen. Bob Smith left the Republican party in July 1999 to run an Independent presidential bid but was back just three months later when a chairmanship opened up following the death of Rhode Island Republican Sen. John Chafee. Voters didn't forgive Smith; he lost a 2002 Republican primary to then Rep. John Sununu 53 percent to 45 percent.

The last Senator to win election as an Independent was Harry Byrd Jr. (D-Va.). Byrd was appointed to replace his father -- Harry Sr. -- in 1965 and ran as a Democrat in a 1966 special election for the remaining four years on the term. He won that race -- albeit narrowly against a liberal Democrat. Four years later Byrd decided to run as an Independent after rejecting urgings from party leaders to sign a pledge to back all Democrats running for office. Byrd won that race with 54 percent, beating back Democrat George Rawlings (31 percent) and Republican Ray Garland (15 percent). Byrd went on to win another term as an Independent in 1976 and retired from the Senate in 1982. He is the only Independent Senate candidate to win more than 50 percent of the vote against two major party nominees and the only Independent to be elected to more than a single Senate term.

Judging from the early reactions of his colleagues and the weight of history, an Independent Senate bid for Lieberman this fall would be rife with complications. While The Fix is usually all in favor of putting the cart before the horse, it's important to remember that a Lieberman primary win is still the most likely outcome. He has been endorsed by the state AFL-CIO as well as nearly every Democratic elected official in the state. Lamont certainly has a chance at pulling off the upset but remains the underdog at the moment.

Can't get enough of the Lieberman-Lamont skirmish? Make sure to watch C-SPAN -- The Fix's favorite channel -- this Thursday at 7 p.m. for a live broadcast of the first debate between Lieberman and Lamont.

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Posted at 10:25 AM ET, 07/ 5/2006

Parsing The Polls: Condoleezza Rice

Since most people (The Fix included) spent the holiday weekend tuned out from politics, you might have missed a few important stories that ran in the Post over the last few days.

The most intriguing was a piece in Monday's paper by Glenn Kessler that focused on the sterling reputation of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The story cited Post polling that showed that in spite of the ongoing struggles of the Bush Administration, Rice remains largely above the fray and would be a major force in the 2008 campaign should she decide to run -- a very unlikely prospect, we say.

(And what about that other woman mentioned as a candidate in 2008? Make sure to read the op-ed on why New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton can win -- penned by two top strategists for her husband -- as well as Post national politics editor John Harris's review of John Podhoretz's book on how to beat Hillary in 2008.)

But, back to Secretary Rice. Since discussions of her (and her political future) seem to pop up regularly on The Fix -- thanks, wethinks, to a very devoted web following -- let's spend this week's "Parsing the Polls" examining her appeal and the chances of her changing her mind about a presidential bid.

The Post poll shows that voters have separated Rice from the problems they have with President Bush. More than half (52 percent) of those tested had a favorable impression of Rice as compared to 27 percent who felt unfavorably about her. The Post has not asked voters to rate Bush's personal favorability since early March but at that time 46 percent felt favorably and 54 percent felt unfavorably about the chief executive. Polls conducted by other organizations in the interim have shown Bush's personal favorability numbers faltering. In an NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, conducted almost concurrently with the Post poll that produced the Rice numbers, just 39 percent had either very (18 percent) or somewhat (21 percent) positive feelings about Bush while 52 percent had either somewhat negative (15 percent) or very negative (27 percent) feelings. (Remember that most pollsters view job approval, not personal favorability, as the best indicator of how Americans view their elected officials. The Harris poll, in the field in early June, showed 52 percent of the sample said Rice was doing an excellent or good job while 43 percent said she was performing fairly or poorly.)

More interesting is why people seem to like Rice. Just one in five voters who view her favorably said that impression was from the policies she supports while a whopping 58 percent said their "view of her professional abilities" was responsible for the positive feelings. It is Rice's perceived competence that appeals to these voters. Rice's appealing life story likely has something to do with that appeal as does the careful managing of her public image -- Kessler reports that Rice now makes it a point to be greeted in foreign countries by celebrities, not dignitaries. (She's also drawn kudos for her keen fashion sense on official trips.)

Among the 27 percent of voters in the Post poll who saw Rice in an unfavorable light, the main reason (55 percent of that unfavorable bloc) were the policies she backed as a member of the Bush Administration. Twenty one percent cited her "professional abilities" as the prime factor for their negative feelings toward Rice.

Other pollls conducted prior to the Post survey back up the strong positive feelings about Rice. An April CNN poll pegged Rice's favorability at 57 percent and her unfavorability at 22 percent. A Pew poll also in the field in April produced remarkably similar results; fifty-nine percent had a very or mostly favorable impression of Rice while 27 percent had a very or mostly unfavorable view of her.

While we can repeat often enough that WE DO NOT BELIEVE that Rice is at all interested in a presidential bid in 2008, the Post poll shows that should she change her mind, which WE DO NOT BELIEVE she will do, it would totally reshape the political landscape.

The poll shows that Rice enjoys across the board support for a potential presidential bid that even Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain would envy. Seventy-one percent of Republicans said they would definitely (14 percent) or consider (57 percent) voting for Rice. Among Democrats, nine percent said they would definitely back Rice in 2008 while 36 percent said they would consider it -- an amazing number given the partisanship prevalent in today's political climate. Rice's numbers were also quite impressive among independents with 49 percent saying they would definitely (8 percent) or consider (41 percent) supporting her in the next national election.

A slew of state and national polls that include Rice in 2008 Republican primary matchups also show her running regularly in the top three along with McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

But, as we've written many times in this space before, polls conducted this far in advance of the next national election can be very deceiving. Giuliani carries near universal name identification thanks to his role following the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks but his path to the nomination as a pro-abortion rights, pro-gay marriage Republican is extremely complicated. Rice would be in for a similar treatment in the heat of a campaign as her opponents worked to take some of the shine off of her currently sterling reputation. One huge stumbling block for Rice? Her "mildly pro-choice" position on abortion, a stance that is generally seen as a non-starter when it comes to Republican nominating politics.

Rice has not gone as far as fast as she has without a dependable political ear. Undoubtedly she is aware that a race for elected office would remove her from the pedestal on which she has been placed by the American public, reducing her to nothing more than a politician. Maybe some day she will want to take that leap but it seems the longest of long shots to think she will begin a political career with a run for president in 2008.

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Posted at 03:20 PM ET, 07/ 3/2006

CT Senate: Lieberman May Run as Independent

Sen. Joe Lieberman is hedging his bets ahead of Connecticut's Aug. 8 primary, announcing today that, though he expects the win the primary, his campaign will gather enough signatures to have his name placed on the ballot as an independent.

"While I believe that I will win the Aug. 8 primary, I know there are no guarantees in elections," Lieberman announced from the steps of Connecticut's statehouse. "No one really knows how many Democrats will come out to vote on what may be a hot day in August."

Lieberman has been heavily criticized within the Democratic Party for his support of the Iraq war, and disaffected Nutmeg State Democrats have flocked to his primary opponent, Ned Lamont, a wealthy businessman from Greenwich.

Lieberman's primary struggle is remarkable considering the fact that he won reelection by a landslide in 1994 and again in 2000, the same year he appeared on the Democratic presidential ticket as Al Gore's running mate.

There is a real chance that Lieberman could lose the Democratic primary and still win the general election as an independent. Voters who indicate no party affiliation are reportedly Connecticut's largest voting bloc.

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Posted at 12:37 PM ET, 07/ 3/2006

New Politics Features

Readers of The Fix,

Over the past few months, washingtonpost.com has added the following new features to our politics section. These features are designed to make our coverage of politics more useful to our readers by providing access to more information on elected officials and candidates, and by better explaining the political process.

Updates to the Congressional Votes Database

Launched last December, the Congressional Votes Database includes overall roll call vote totals and the individual voting records for all members of Congress dating back to 1991.

On individual members' pages within the database, we've added official biographies and a link to a PDF version of each member's annual financial disclosure statement (senators and congressmen are required to list all their assets and investments). The disclosure statements are also available via an index page that lists each member of Congress who has filed a statement.

Other additions to members' pages include links to recent Washington Post and washingtonpost.com articles on individual lawmakers, and if a member of Congress is currently involved in a competitive election, we provide a link to a "Key Race" profile page. In addition to information on senators and representatives, we've added a full demographic profile for each lawmaker's state or district.

For readers interested in the most important congressional votes, reporters and editors at The Washington Post and washingtonpost.com collaborated on a list of "Key Votes" cast during the 109th Congress. These are votes on the bills, nominations and resolutions that deal with the most important and/or most politically divisive issues. Each Key Vote includes an explanation of the legislation in question and analysis of its political impact. Individual Key Votes pages are also available for each member of Congress.

Congressional Schedule

For those interested in following daily business at the U.S. Capitol, we have created a daily schedule for both houses of Congress. This schedule includes floor action and committee meetings and hearings -- along with meeting times and room numbers.

Key Race Pages

Since our 2006 Key Race pages were first published in January, we have steadily added new features and new information. Now -- in addition to analysis of the race, a state political profile, and mini-profiles of the candidates -- we've included full campaign finance data for each candidate and the demographic profiles of each candidate's district or state. The campaign finance information is provided by the Center for Responsive Politics and is based on quarterly campaign finance reports candidates make to the Federal Election Commission. The demographic data is based on the 2000 U.S. census. Each Key Race page also includes the race's primary date and primary results (when available).

Readers who want to stay up to date on washingtonpost.com Key Race analysis may subscribe to a Key Races RSS feed.

We also have a simple calendar of state primary dates as well as a full "political events" calendar.

Podcasts

The Post Politics Hour

The launch of Washington Post Radio in the D.C. area has provided an opportunity to offer our audience more analysis and insight from Washington Post and washingtonpost.com political writers and editors. Each week, barring preemption by a Washington Nationals baseball game, host Sam Litzinger hosts a political roundtable discussion with Post staffers and invited newsmakers. The program is broadcast live on Thursdays at 1 p.m. ET on 107.7 FM or 1500 AM in the Washington area and is available anytime, worldwide, via podcast:

• Listen/Download MP3
• Subscribe XML | iTunes | MyYahoo

The Fix Podcast

washingtonpost.com political writer and analyst Chris Cillizza, author of washingtonpost.com's political blog, The Fix, now podcasts a twice-monthly program that includes interviews with top 2008 presidential contenders and occasional analysis of how the 2008 race is shaping up.

Listen/Download: MP3
Subscribe: XML | iTunes | My Yahoo

Politics Section

The politics section on washingtonpost.com now includes a "Top Stories" and "RSS & Podcasts" subscription box at the bottom of each article. The top stories feature allows readers to view the top 35 most-read politics articles in the section, while the RSS & Podcast provides links to our two politics podcasts as well as RSS feeds of our best articles, columns, and blogs.

We will also soon begin linking more frequently from politics news articles to the Congressional Votes Database. The first reference of a lawmaker's name in an article will link to his or her respective entry in the database, allowing users to see the biography, financial disclosure statement, and voting record of the lawmakers written about by The Post and washingtonpost.com.

Jason Manning
Politics Editor
washingtonpost.com

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Posted at 07:20 AM ET, 06/30/2006

The Friday Line: Gingrich, Gore and Another Early Look at 2008

Since The Fix started listing the five Democrats and five Republicans most likely to win their party's presidential nomination in 2008, we've struggled with how to handle two potential candidates -- former vice president Al Gore and former House speaker Newt Gingrich.

There are a number of similarities between the two men. Both began their political careers at young ages and were tagged as rising stars. Both achieved substantial early success and went on to reach the verge of great triumph before being brought low and disappearing from politics. And now both are back in public life and being urged by elements from within their respective parties to run for national office.

To date, Gingrich has shown more interest in a potential run than Gore, but neither has ruled out a bid. Until now we have left both men off the Friday Line, but that changes this month.

Remember: The Friday Line is a snapshot in time of where the presidential field stands. So, if your favorite candidate has either dropped off or never made it on -- never fear! There's plenty of time between now and January 2008 when we will all have a clearer picture of the contest. Use the comments section below to keep this conversation going.

The candidates are ranked alphabetically. We won't start ranking them by their chances to win the nomination until after the 2006 midterms. To the Line!

THE DEMOCRATS

Evan Bayh: We were intrigued to read in the Des Moines Register this week that Bayh is the only 2008 Democrat other than Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack who has political staff on the ground in the Hawkeye State. We've said all along that Bayh's methodological approach to the nominating process will eventually pay dividends. At some point, however, Bayh needs to show that he is more than just a process candidate (Midwesterner, former governor of a red state) and that he can energize Democratic base voters. (Read The Fix's Bayh interview.)

Hillary Rodham Clinton: Clinton's hiring of Peter Daou and Jesse Berney -- two prominent liberal bloggers -- is yet more evidence that she is readying for a 2008 candidacy. Clinton's problems with liberals over the Iraq war aren't going away, and her team needs to figure out a way to placate the left before the Iowa caucuses where anti-war sentiment is sure to run high. We see more holes in Clinton's candidacy now than we did a year ago, but without Gore in the race she is still the odds-on frontrunner.

John Edwards: No Democrat had a better month than Edwards. His first place showing in the Des Moines Register poll of likely caucus goers shows that Edwards retains considerable good will in the state after his second-place finish in the 2005 caucuses. We're still not convinced Edwards can turn on the spigot early next year and raise the $10+ million needed to keep him competitive with the lead pack, but the poll goes a long way to keeping him relevant between now and then. (Read The Fix's Edwards interview.)

Al Gore: Why add Gore now? Because when we talk to strategists for every other candidate considering the race, one of the first questions they ask is: "What do you hear about Gore?" Talk to former aides and allies of the vice president and you get totally divergent responses. Some believe he will only run if drafted into the race in its latter stages; others are convinced that if Hillary Clinton looks like a winner, Gore will run in order to keep the party from moving more towards the ideological middle. Here's a tidbit that makes us think that Gore might be seriously considering a bid: He not only did an automated call for Democrats in the California 50th special election earlier this month, but he also reached out to Democrat Francine Busby following her defeat in that race. We won't rehash the arguments for and against a Gore candidacy; suffice to say that if he gets in, Gore would have to be considered the co-favorite for the nomination along with Clinton. And what an epic clash it would be.

Mark Warner: Ahead of the 2006 elections, Warner is running a different type of race compared with other candidates listed here. He is using his Forward Together PAC to prove his fundraising ability and bolster his Democratic bona fides. Forward Together has raised an impressive $7 million since last July, and Warner has sprinkled donations to candidates and party committees all over the country. As a candidate he remains a work in progress. More so than any other candidate in the field, though, we get a sense from Warner that he really wants the nomination and is willing to do whatever he needs to do to get it. Don't underestimate a hungry candidate.

THE REPUBLICANS

George Allen: Allen's reelection race against former Navy Secretary James Webb (D) carries both potential and peril for the Virginia Republican's White House aspirations. First, the peril: At best Allen wins the race but is unable to travel to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina for the kind of quality time those states demand from presidential candidates. At worst, Allen loses to Webb and never makes the presidential starting gate. Now, the potential: The race between Allen and Webb is already drawing national attention and will only get more high-profile from here on out. Allen will have the opportunity to polish his skills and work out any kinks in his stump style and, should he win convincingly, he can make the argument that he has a blueprint to beat back Democratic attacks on the war in Iraq. (Read The Fix's Allen interview.)

Newt Gingrich: In the last twelve years Gingrich has gone from prophet to pariah to prophet (again). If he decides to run -- and we think he will -- Gingrich has an enviable combination of attributes: He gives a great speech, has national name recognition, and has connections with grassroots leaders and powers within the donor community. A veritable one-man ideas factory, Gingrich has twice as many policy ideas as any other Republican in the field. A Gingrich campaign would not be without problems, however, including his two divorces, which might not sit well with some conservative Republican voters.

Mike Huckabee: The Arkansas governor's presidential campaign showed signs of life this month with the hiring of Eric Woolson -- a veteran of the Bush campaign in Iowa -- to handle his political affairs in the Hawkeye State. Huckabee will also make his eighth trip into the state next week. His heavy focus on Iowa makes good strategic sense as social conservatives comprise a significant voting bloc of the Republican caucus vote. The risk with Huckabee's strategy is that if